Frogmore Snowmageddon this weekend more likely?

Typically on this blog, with a headline like that you’d get a grumpy cat meme or the “how about no” bear. But it’s looking a bit more like this:

It’s starting to look like there will be a doom dance this weekend not only for the Frogmore Metroplex (Coastal Georgtia/SC Lowcountry, see this for definition) but across the southeast. Two key points this morning: First, no matter the snow potential, it will be seriously cold Sunday into Tuesday that needs to be taken seriously, more so because winds are expected to be enough to put wind chills not just in the teens, but in some areas even in Savannah and Frogmore itself, below 10 degrees F! Second, it’s looking more like there will be snow accumulation across the area. Here are the details.

As usual we start with what the National Weather Service forecasters are saying. Here is a slide from the latest Charleston briefing on temperatures:

And here is the snow forecast:

Looking inland here are the key messages from Peachtree City (Atlanta), and Morehead City North Carolina:

What does all that mean? Using the Parkside neighborhood in Savannah area as the reference, it will start as cold rain sometime Saturday morning. Fortunately the temperature profiles are such that it doesn’t look like freezing rain – this should be a snow and rain mixing together in the afternoon then transitioning to all snow by evening. Savannah could see a half inch or more snow. Right now, the snow line looks to be south of Savannah in the Fort Stewart/Hinesville area, but flurries and some on the ground as far south as Brunswick are possible. North of Savannah, totals climb in to the inches range by the time you get to the Charleston area. These number will be refined as we get closer to the event (and we’ll know for sure by Sunday 😛 ).

The precipitation type profiles are good news for the power grid and most infrastructure – we shouldn’t get an ice storm like some regions of the South got last week. But … travel will be hazardous on the roads as they will likely be icy, if not from the residual rain under the snow from any traffic over them. Virtually none of the cars down here, much less the drivers, are properly equipped to handle even a little snow. All that fancy four wheel drive and anti-lock brakes on your SUV with standard tires will do is make sure all four wheels are spinning in unison as you slide into something. Leave the slipping and skidding to the professionals …

So, do you want to live forever? Then plan on staying off the roads from Saturday evening until the snow/ice melts off the roads, likely Monday afternoon as any melt Sunday will certainly refreeze. Be careful walking about as well. Painful as it may be, monitor local media or use tools like the Georgia 511 web site (511ga.org) for road conditions if you absolutely have to go out.

Sunday will be very cold, with snow on the ground and winds whipping up in the 20mph range. Some people are derisive of “wind chill” or “feels like” indices, but they are a real thing. If you have to go out, try to figure out an excuse not to, but if you do be safe and sensible about it and dress appropriately. This is definitely a pipe dripping event, and get every animal you can off the streets or outside shelters.

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Speaking of the Doom, here’s Gunship doing the Doom Dance:

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