First up, for the Frogmore Metroplex (click for geography review), there will be several very cold nights ahead, well below freezing, so protect plants and pets for sure, and later in the week things will start to be cold-soaked since there won’t be as much recovery during the day. The beloved heart of the region, Frogmore itself, temps may not get out of the 40’s for over a week, with night time lows in the 20’s. Savannah might hit the low 50’s, but the model forecasts for temperatures has been goofy lately, missing both high and low.
NWS likes to use the “four P’s:” People, Pets, Pipes, and Plants. Starting with the most important, pets, they need to be inside or in shelter of some kind if the temperatures are going below freezing, especially into the 20’s. Water bowls will freeze over, and they aren’t any more used to it than you are. Things will be cold the next week. Hope the house training sticks.
Plants: Those that are delicate and can’t move should be covered – do it before the temperatures drop (in this case this afternoon) to retain some heat. Be aware that some plants who can normally survive if in the ground won’t make it in pots because in a pot their roots might freeze, but in the ground (which of course stays warmer, especially below a couple inches) would be fine. Otherwise, bring them in so your cat can play with them and chase the lizard who was hiding in them across your dining room table, smashing any expensive items.
This also means that you do need to start thinking about a more complex subject, your plumbing. So what about pipes? Here is another of those “it depends” situation. There is a huge amount of contradictory advice on dripping water faucets. Why do you need to do it anyway? Because water is weird: unlike most substances, it expands when it freezes. So when in a confined space like a pipe, it can expand until the container bursts. Then when it thaws out, you’ve got a problem.
There is no hard and fast rule. Southern Living has some advice that seems reasonable. Note that some sources (like Angie’s List) have some errors – for example, they say you don’t need to drip the hot water lines when in fact in many homes in the South the hot water tanks are in unheated attics, and the lines running through the attic are not protected. So you need to have the hot water side doing a gentle trickle as well (slow drips might not be enough, but it doesn’t need to be full blast either).
A key aspect is duration and “cold soaking.” For pipes in or connected to a house, or coming out of the ground, it takes time for the cold to “soak in” (the technical term is thermal inertia). A good rule of thumb is that if the temperatures are below freezing for more than 6 hours, or below 30 for 4 hours, it’s probably smart to drip or drain uninsulated pipes. We’re going to blow through those guidelines for sure, and depending on how well your house is insulated (and where the water pipes are run relative to that insulation), indoor dripping might be advised as well.
There is already talk about a possible storm system brewing next weekend. The models are forecasting another shot of cold are, and possibly a strong nor’easter forming. There is some chance of a big storm forming, here you can see the low pressure off the GA/SC coast and winds circulating around it in a classic nor’easter pattern …
If you don’t know by now, snow forecasts are notoriously difficult in the South. The timing of moisture, temperatures, etc. are so critical minor forecast errors mean the difference between rain, freezing rain, sleet, or snow. No model, ensemble, or blend of models, AI, or entrail reading augury by a clickbaiting weather blogger can figure that out a week in advance given the state of our technology. To repeat, at 5-7 days we can see general trends, at 3-5 days we can see the potentials, but it’s not a serious forecast until it is within 3 days.
The timeline for winter storm watches and warnings reflects this uncertainty:
Be especially suspicious of apps, for reasons I ranted about at this link. You don’t know which model they are using, and they can show snow when no sane forecaster would predict that (and vice versa!).
Will take a serious look at this until it unfolds, but meantime, stay warm, and don’t feed the trolls …
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