AL95 getting organized, Priscilla almost cat3

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Watching three systems this morning, AL95 is the red blob of doom in the mid Atlantic. May brush the Leeward Islands, but most impacts look to stay well offshore. Hurricane Priscilla is borderline Cat 3, and might become one today before starting to weaken as it curls towards Baja. And Typhoon Halong still looks to recurve just offshore of the main islands of Japan.

Satellite image showing the tropical weather outlook with Invest area AL95 marked in red, indicating increasing organization in the mid Atlantic. Additional areas of interest are also shown with varying percentages.

Invest area AL95 (disturbance #1 on NHC’s Tropical Weather Outlook) is showing increasing signs of organization, and is expected to become a depression or storm in the next day or so. GFS is pretty enthusiastic about the storm, here is what that scenario looks like using my TAOS(tm) hazard model …

Map indicating the projected storm impacts for Invest AL95, highlighting potential wind swath and affected areas in the North Atlantic and Caribbean Sea.

The ECM suite isn’t so enthusiastic, at least as of the 00Z runs, showing only a very weak system. But given the increasing organization that will likely change in future runs. The regional models like HFS take the storm a bit to the west which would impact the northeastern Caribbean.

Weather map showing projected tracks of tropical systems, including AL95, with distinct color-coded lines indicating different forecasting models.

Those in the Leeward Islands should be “monitoring” (checking in the morning and maybe evening) for the next few days to see which scenario materializes. Disturbance number 2, in the Bay of Campeche, has almost no chance of development.

Satellite image showing Hurricane Priscilla near the Baja Peninsula with projected path and warnings for nearby areas.

In the East Pacific, Priscilla is only one knot (1.15mph) shy of being a major hurricane (Cat 3). The official forecast keeps it at that intensity the next day or so, but fluctuations are possible. It should weaken before curving towards Baja, but watches are up for the southern end of the peninsula.

Map depicting the projected storm impacts for Hurricane Priscilla, including areas of potential damage and wind swath predictions.

Octave is fading but still with us, and should curve around behind Priscilla. There is another system developing behind them that should follow a similar track to Priscilla if it develops.

The West Pacific remains active, with Typhoon Halong recurving just offshore from Japan. It should stay far enough away to keep the worst effects offshore.

Map displaying the projected impacts and trajectory of Typhoon Halong off the coast of Japan, indicating estimated wind swath and potential damage areas.

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