Three disturbances in the Atlantic Outlook?

Well, two of them are tagged by NHC as having zero chance of spinning up. The Florida blob, and the on again-off again circulation in the Gulf of Whatever both are in adverse conditions and NHC finally gave up on them (note the 50% area off of Mexico, more on that below):

Satellite image showing the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook with labeled areas of interest in the Atlantic, including two disturbances with 0% chance of development and one with 50% chance, as well as a wave off Africa marked with the number 3.

The only real area of interest in the Atlantic is a wave coming off of Africa, tagged as “3” in the above map. We’re getting in to the fall patterns, with strong fronts passing through the SEUS and into the Caribbean, which can spawn off lows such as the two disturbances in the outlook. The wave off of Africa does seem to have some potential, GFS is quite enthusiastic about creating a hurricane out of it, but takes it out in to the central Atlantic away from even Bermuda. As with any wave from that far out, it’s not worth getting excited about until it develops a circulation center and gets tagged as an invest area.


Satellite image of the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook showing tropical disturbances in the East Pacific, including Octave and Invest EP99, along with their respective probabilities of development.

The East Pacific is busy, with Octave still spinning far offshore, Invest EP99 should become a tropical storm today. EP99 needs watching because it is so close to shore and expected to parallel Mexico over the next week, a wobble could bring impacts inland.


Matmo is headed towards China, disrupting the holiday weekend with some potential for damage in the area of landfall on Hainan Island and the mainland.

Satellite image showing Typhoon Matmo near China, with marked locations of Hong Kong and various other cities, along with the Invest WP94 system in the ocean.

1 Comment

  1. As always, thank you for you dedication to accurate reporting! You are much appreciated.

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