Imelda and Humberto (Mon. 29 Sept)

3 Comments

The short version is that Imelda and Humberto (still Cat 4) are both moving away from the Bahamas and US mainland, only Bermuda is at risk for direct impacts. Here’s links to NHC’s summaries: Key messages regarding Hurricane Humberto (en Español: Mensajes Claves), and Key messages regarding Tropical Storm Imelda (en Español: Mensajes Claves). Here’s the track forecast on top of this morning’s IR satellite view:

Satellite view of the Atlantic showing the paths of Hurricane Humberto and Tropical Storm Imelda, along with watches and warnings for affected areas.
click any image to embiggen

Although Imelda continues to slowly organize and should become a hurricane, it is moving northward and should start the abrupt turn to the east tonight or tomorrow. Here’s the model runs this morning for both storms:

Forecast track models for Hurricane Humberto and Tropical Storm Imelda, showing projected paths near the Caribbean and eastern United States.
FYI, lines at the top left are “debris” from Narda in the Pacific. Just because it is something being followed by the lowtrackers doesn’t mean it is a “storm” …

Again, Bermuda will get hit by both storms to one degree or another so is in for a stormy week. The US coast will mostly get waves, although a jet of moisture from Imelda is hovering near the coast and the Frogmore Region (GA/SC coasts) and may cause rain Mon/Tue. It will be breezy the next couple of days, but nothing hazardous, and that’s about it. All over by Wednesday (with cooler/drier air finally reaching the coast so I can resume outdoor Tai Chi!).

Here’s the watches and warnings as of 6am, the green area in Florida is a wind advisory, the rest beach advisories for high surf and rip currents. The light blue/cyan offshore are small craft advisories.

Map showing current weather hazards and warnings along the southeastern U.S. coastline, indicating various alerts including tornado and flood warnings.

Nothing else in the Atlantic, a typhoon hit Vietnam during our angst that I was watching but I’m sorry I didn’t mention, Bualoi, which has cause considerabled damage and loss of life (22 confirmed).

Map showing the forecast path and impact zones of Typhoon Bualoi in Southeast Asia, indicating estimated economic impact and timeline for affected areas.

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3 Comments

  1. Chuck – Checking Windy this am and saw something spinning mid Gulf of Whatever. Anything to it?

    Reply

    1. I don’t like their streamline maps, tends to exaggerate things. TAFB says:
      A weak surface trough over the central Gulf waters continues to
      produce some shallow convection. The pressure gradient between
      this feature and higher pressures to the north result in moderate
      NE winds and seas of 4-6 ft from 24N to 28N and between 88W and
      94W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight seas prevail.

      For the forecast, the weak surface trough in the central Gulf will drift
      southwestward over the next couple of days and gradually dissipate.

      Reply

  2. Thanks again for always doing such a fantastic job tracking the events with wisdom and common sense …have a blessed day !

    Reply

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