Quick Saturday Update

TL;DR: Gabrielle still looks to only brush Bermuda with minimal impacts. Typhoon Ragasa will pass near Hong Kong/Macao, causing major impacts.

Map showing the global tropical cyclone summary with recent data on storms Gabrielle, Ragasa, and Neoguri, including their locations and designations.

NHC has started issuing Key messages regarding Tropical Storm Gabrielle (en Español: Mensajes Claves).

Satellite image showing the path and forecast intensity of Tropical Storm Gabrielle near Bermuda and the East Coast of the US, with weather warnings indicated.

The forecast is pretty consistent taking the storm far enough east of Bermuda that the only potential impacts are some rain and gusty winds, along with waves/rip currents.

Map displaying the forecast track and impact zones of Tropical Storm Gabrielle, with Bermuda indicated, and various time intervals for predicted intensity.

Gabrielle will also cause rip currents and waves along the US East Coast in a few days. No rip current advosiries up for the Frogmore Metroplex yet, but expect them later today/tomorrow.

Satellite image showing Typhoon Ragasa near Hong Kong and the trajectory of another storm, Neoguri, with weather patterns and forecasts indicated.

There are two typhoons in the West Pacific. Neoguri is a fish storm, but Ragasa is a rapidly strengthening system that will probably become a Supertyphoon (Saffir-Simpson Cat 4 or greater) soon. It is expected to split the difference between the northern coast of The Philippines and south coast of Taiwan before making landfall somewhere on the southeast coast of China.

Map showing the forecast track and impact zones of Typhoon Ragasa in the West Pacific, including estimated economic impact and wind thresholds indicating potential damage.

The JTWC track has shifted a bit south and weaker than yesterday’s somewhat apocalyptic forecast, impacts now “only” estimated at $8 to $10 Billion USD as the core of the storm now expected to pass south of the Hong Kong/Macao conglomeration. That’s still a lot of damage with 141 million people within the potential impact swath, and a northward wobble would be Bad.


If you like this commentary you can subscribe to the emails, which is the best and only really reliable way to get them, and/or donate to keep it going, at this this link. You can also follow us on X/Twitter (@EnkiResearch), Telegram, BlueSky, or even Facebook if that’s your preferred social media misery.

1 Comment

Leave a Reply to Ruth HerbisonCancel reply