TL;DR: two storms have spun up in the East Pacific that need watching in Baja and Hawai’i; elsewhere still threat condition “meh.”
Here’s the East Pacific overview, showing two active storms. Kiko became a hurricane this morning and is about halfway between the mainland and Hawai’i, TD12E has just spun up off of Mexico and should become a tropical storm later today::
The NHC discussion for TD12E has the magic words: “Interests in southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of this system. A Tropical Storm Watch could be required for portions of Baja California later today or Wednesday.” The forecast impact swath map looks like this based on this morning’s forecast:
Here are the main model forecasts for both storms.
Note that for Kiko, the long term outlook (7-10 days, NOT a forecast, as those only go out five days) does have the storm track passing near Hawai’i. Too early to do anything or worry about it, but by this weekend if the storm follows this track, and if the intensity forecast holds (it should still be a hurricane on day 5), we might maybe be talking about impacts on the Islands. No need to wear out your refresh key, check back tomorrow, Thursday would be reasonable.
NHC is tracking a disturbance in the Atlantic, and has it at a 60% chance of becoming something. No discrete model tracking yet as there it is not yet an organized system, but longer range global model outlooks have the storm curving away from the Caribbean and staying offshore.
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