Will Erin Brush Hatteras? (Mon. 18 Aug 2025)

TL;DR: Erin is expected to track a bit closer to the US Coast, and combined with a large, expanded wind field, there is a risk of hazardous conditions on the Outer Banks of North Carolina. Last night precautionary evacuations were started for the Outer Banks (link). It is likely that tropical storm watches and warnings will be posted for both Hatteras and Bermuda.

The official word is at NHC’s Key messages regarding Hurricane Erin (en Español: Mensajes Claves). If you’re in eastern North Carolina, the NWSFO Morehead City is the site for local forecast info. Here’s the current forecast track, and active watches and warnings as of 5am this morning:

Here is what the GFS model is showing for 5am Thursday morning, with tropical storm force winds over the outer banks …

Tracking is pretty consistent, but given the size of the storm even normally insignificant wobbles can make a difference:

Although the forecast track for Erin is probably pretty good, it has a very large wind field, with tropical storm force winds extending about 1/3 further from the center than is typical for a storm like this. Here is the impact swath from two different wind field models – NHC is warning that their products are probably underestimating the risk, which is likely the case for this unusually large storm. This is because wind model and statistical outputs assume certain characteristics based on past storms (on the right), and Erin is at the 80th percentile and will likely be over the 90th percentile of storm size as it passes Hatteras (on the left):

So there are some risks to both Hatteras and Bermuda, if you are in either of those places take precautions and follow the advice of local emergency managers. It certainly makes sense for tourists to evacuate, and with the potential for power outages and shallow flooding as well as wave damage along the coast it’s probably not a catastrophic situation, more like what you would see in a bad nor’easter, but not worth sticking around for in case something goes wrong.

The rest of the Southeast (and later northeast) coast will likely get heavy surf and rip currents from the storm, making the beaches a bit hazardous, so if you are taking a holiday at the beach be careful. This includes the beaches of the Frogmore Metroplex (coastal GA/SC).

There is another system behind Erin that is getting some attention, some model runs show a major storm forming and making landfall in 10 days or so, others nothing, so until something actually spins up all we can really say is there is good potential for something to form later this week. Here’s the overview …

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