Tropics overview, South Frogmore Flooding

Tracking five systems this morning. Moving from West to East, in the West Pacific we have Tropical Storm Podul, headed towards the coast of China. The forecast is for Podul to become a Typhoon before landfall in about three days …

In the Central and East Pacific, two tropical storms are far from shore. Ivo is moving away from the Mexican coast, whereas Henrietta is tracking north of Hawai’i … neither are of concern.

Finally, much to the joy of the tropical clickbait community, there is some action in the Atlantic. While the first disturbance (AL96, the number “2” on the TWO for reasons known only to NHC) is only pegged with a 20% chance of something spinning up in the central Atlantic, off the coast of Africa AL97 (#1 on the map) has been given a 80% chance of tropical formation in the 8am advisory and is now red on this morning’s Tropical Weather Outlook:

Here are the latest track/formation model runs. As noted yesterday, they were trending offshore, and that trend has continued, reducing the potential for problems in the Caribbean and US Coast.

Here’s the cool image comparison tool (slidee thingee, in technical terms) comparing the ECMWF and GFS runs for 8am on the 18th, with the storm approaching Bermuda as a strong hurricane in GFS, but slower and weaker in ECM:

In short, yesterday’s advice still applies: if in the Caribbean, check in late tomorrow or Tuesday morning to see if you need to worry, for the US CONUS, late next week, but in either case at least as it stands now you will not be excited.

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Lots of rain falling across the area, there is a Flood Watch across the entire Frogmore Metroplex (Darian Darien to north of Charleston, and the first tier of inland counties like Effingham, Bulloch, etc).

There are Flood Advisories for Bluffton/HHI, will probably get them for other areas as more rain falls this afternoon, so be careful. Storm total rain here near Daffin Park in Savannah (38.7 Miles southwest of Frogmore) is at 4″ as of 7am Sunday morning.

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