First EP Tropical System of 2025 forms off of Mexico

Overnight the first tropical system of 2025 formed in the Eastern Pacific, off the coast of Mexico. Tropical Depression One-E is forecast to become a tropical storm later today, before heading up towards Baja and the Gulf of California …

Although TD01E should become tropical storm Alvin, it probably won’t become a hurricane. Sea surface temperatures are marginal, and while shear is light over the developing system now, by the time it gets near the coast there should be higher winds aloft to tear it up, as shown on the forecast map.

Some of the long range models show a system developing over the fetid waters of that body-of-water-south-of-New-Orleans (BOWSONO) in about two weeks, out of a tropical wave expected to move up from the Caribbean. As a reminder, tropical cyclone forecasts that far out are just barely short of worthless. It’s just something for the click-bait and ad-revenue crowd to chatter about to keep your attention. For every real storm that is correctly forecast that far out, three or four won’t materialize (and one that wasn’t forecast will). Don’t waste your time worrying until NHC starts talking about it in the tropical weather outlooks or forecasts.

I realize most of you don’t come here for my sparkling commentary on natural hazards much less the increasingly rare geopolitical insights that are the core of my work these days. I have no illusions: you were here for Nicholas. I’m sad to report that Nicholas peacefully passed away yesterday at the age of 25. That’s (checks chart), um, ok. The “cat-human age equivalent” chart only goes up to 21, which is considered to be 100 in human years. By any measure Nicholas lived a long and adventuresome life, and was office El Supremo for the last 8 years. He will be missed.