Overnight the first tropical system of 2025 formed in the Eastern Pacific, off the coast of Mexico. Tropical Depression One-E is forecast to become a tropical storm later today, before heading up towards Baja and the Gulf of California …
Although TD01E should become tropical storm Alvin, it probably won’t become a hurricane. Sea surface temperatures are marginal, and while shear is light over the developing system now, by the time it gets near the coast there should be higher winds aloft to tear it up, as shown on the forecast map.
Some of the long range models show a system developing over the fetid waters of that body-of-water-south-of-New-Orleans (BOWSONO) in about two weeks, out of a tropical wave expected to move up from the Caribbean. As a reminder, tropical cyclone forecasts that far out are just barely short of worthless. It’s just something for the click-bait and ad-revenue crowd to chatter about to keep your attention. For every real storm that is correctly forecast that far out, three or four won’t materialize (and one that wasn’t forecast will). Don’t waste your time worrying until NHC starts talking about it in the tropical weather outlooks or forecasts.
I realize most of you don’t come here for my sparkling commentary on natural hazards much less the increasingly rare geopolitical insights that are the core of my work these days. I have no illusions: you were here for Nicholas. I’m sad to report that Nicholas peacefully passed away yesterday at the age of 25. That’s (checks chart), um, ok. The “cat-human age equivalent” chart only goes up to 21, which is considered to be 100 in human years. By any measure Nicholas lived a long and adventuresome life, and was office El Supremo for the last 8 years. He will be missed.
Very sorry for your loss.
Sorry to hear of Nicholas’ passing. It’s never easy to lose a valued and loved furry child. Peace.
So sorry about Nicholas. Losing a pet breaks your neart
Ah, the Gulf of Fetid Waters. I like it.
When I spent time at places like Keesler AFB, Stennis Space Center, etc. it always smelled weird to me.
My condolences for your loss. Nicholas will be missed by your following.
❤️❤️💕❤️❤️💫💫
Sorry for your loss, Chuck!
My deep sympathy for your loss. They give us so much: loyalty and unconditional love.
So sorry for your loss. You are right; Nicholas is why we follow you…such a fine cat.
So sorry for your loss.
Oh Chuck! I’m so sorry for your loss. Hugs.
So very sorry for your loss, but what a long life Nicholas had with you!
So sorry for the loss of your kitty. 😢
I’m so sorry to hear about Nicholas. We, too, had a cat named Nicholas — he was solid gray from his nose to the tip of his tail. I hope you can find peace soon.
So sorry to
🙏🏼
Very sorry to hear about Nicholas, I know how tough that is. Really appreciate your informative commentary, as always.
So very sorry to hear about Nicholas. He certainly will be missed. Prayers of comfort for you.
I’m so sorry to hear about Nicholas. What an amazing life he had. Thank you for all you do.
Sincere condolences on the loss of your furry companion….
So so sorry anout your loss! Nicholas lived a very long life and was so loved. A good life indeed.
So sorry to hear about Nicholas. You can tell he was loved very much. May the memories bring you peace.
It’s so heartbreaking to lose a beloved family member. Cheers to the life of Nicholas and the many memories you have of your much loved companion!
I’m so sorry
Loss of a beloved companion is painful….Big hugs and healing light 💕
Oh, man. I’m so sorry to hear of Nicholas’ demise. We have been there, sir. It’s a hard row to hoe.
What a wonderful life he had. And having a loyal companion for that many years ❤️❤️❤️
RIP Nicholas. I’m sad for all the Nicholas fans out here, but especially for you. 😿💔
My condolences to you Enki. May Nicholas rest peacefully in whatever happens if there is an afterlife. It’s not easy losing a 4 legged furry family member.
Thank you for always keeping us well informed with sane intelligence.
Sorry to hear about Nicholas. Quite an adventurous life.
Condolences to you on the loss of your beloved feline, Nicholas. An adventurous life is the best life.
Oh, Nicholas, your human keeps me safe and you always made me smile. I will miss you this hurricane season.
Oh no…I’m so sorry. To be gifted with his love for 25 years is amazing, but at the same time, its never long enough.
So sorry to hear of Nicholas passing. He was a beauty and a loyal friend.
So sorry for the loss of your little buddy. What a sweet, handsome little guy. 😿
Oh so sorry! That is a long life but still so sad to lose him.
Oh no…so sorry to hear about Nicholas. He was beautiful. I’m thankful that he had a full and amazing life with you. I can’t imagine your pain after having him 25 years. I thought my loss of our cat at 16 would put me under…Healing thoughts and prayers.
Thank you for taking such good care of Nicholas. I’m sending some prayers for comfort and peace for you in the days to come.
I’m sorry for the loss of your sweet cat
So sorry for your loss. Nicholas was blessed to be I. Your care.
Sure is hard when our pets die. That’s quite a run! I’m sure the office seems empty.
Thanks for doing what you do!
Thank you for all the information you give us.
So sorry to learn of Nicholas’s passing!
RIP Nicholas. Sorry for you. Thank you for keeping us alert, educated and safe.
So sorry to hear about Nicholas. 🌈Sending good vibes and love to you and your family during this trying time. ❤️🩹 Thank you for what you do!
I am so sorry to hear of Nicholas’s passing. 🫂🫂🫂
RIP Nicholas Cool Cat from his former Parkside neighbors
So sorry
I’m so sorry about Nicholas.
BTW I do come here for your witty remarks.
Thank you
When I read your post on Facebook about “sad news“ I didn’t want to come here because I knew it would be about Nicholas. Animals are so important in our lives. They make everything about it better. It’s so hard to reconcile the incredible grief, but in my experience I wouldn’t deny myself a single moment with any of the dogs and cats that I have been lucky enough to have shared my house with over the years.
I’m very sorry for your loss.
Thank you for a terrific blog, I enjoy it very much.
I do come for the commentary and Nicholas. I lost my Ginger boy earlier this year.
RIP, Nicholas. You will be missed.