There is a joke in the economics profession about the analyst that predicted 12 of the last three recessions. There should be one along the same lines about TV/media/bloggers doing “weather” as well. The next time you hear a “forecast” that in 7 or 10 days there will be severe weather (much less months in advance), think back to this winter and how many times snow was predicted for the deep south that didn’t materialize. Yeah, that one time it panned out, but not the other six or seven. It’s about the same with long range severe thunderstorm/tornado outlooks – lots of false alarms, as well as storms popping up with little warning. Three days is about the max for details on this sort of thing.
There is a major system moving into the central US this week, and should be reaching the Southeast by Wednesday. Here’s the WPC latest messages and graphic:
and here’s the hazard outlook:
The detailed Storm Prediction Center (SPC) forecasts won’t start appearing until tomorrow (Monday). The hazard outlook shows the Frogmore Metroplex (click for explanation; basically, coastal GA and SC) has some potential for gusty winds, but the Charleston SC Weather Service Forecast Office isn’t impressed with the severe weather threat. Here’s the GFS forecast for 7am Wednesday showing several interesting parameters, the two of interest are the lower left (CAPE, a measure of how much energy is in the atmo) and lower right (Helicity, a measure of wind shear and an indication of tornado potential).
Most likely this front will produce a fast moving band of heavy rain with a thunderstorm or two. Inland (other side of Maon) has a bit more potential for something hazardous, but the Peachtree City office isn’t excited either. Still, keep your weather radio handy for alerts.
As for the rash of 2025 hurricane season forecasts that certain media outlets have been hawking the last week or so, the only thing I have to say is they are unprofessional, irresponsible clickbaiting fear mongers. Anyone who is promoting this crap should be ignored. If it’s your local TV or newspaper, delete their app, cancel your subscription, or block them. For sure don’t encourage it.
Hurricane season forecasts are coming out earlier and earlier. It’s a waste of time. I wrote a post last April (link) that has a bit of the science behind seasonal forecasts if you are bored. Once we get past the “spring barrier” I might do a post on what the upcoming season might look like. Until then worry about what needs worrying about, like the chaos in our government, tornado season, and where the nearest box of tissues is since it’s pollen season. Makes these ladies happy, but my sinuses, not so much …
If you like this kind of commentary you can subscribe to the emails (and/or donate to keep it going) at this link. You can also follow us on X/Twitter (@EnkiResearch) or even Facebook if that’s your preferred social media bog (British meaning 😛 ).