The Iceman Cometh?

TL;DR: It’s winter. So it’s likely here will be another wave of cold air coming down from the Arctic. It looks like the next wave will be early next week. For the southeastern US, if a low forms in the Gulf of Mexico, if the timing is right, if the path is right, then there will be snow/ice/freezing rain further south. Or north. But who/what/when is really hard to forecast more than about 48 hours out. So …

… and check back Sunday.

Still here? OK, here’s a bit more, from the Weather Service Forecast Office (WSFO) Charleston:

After Sunday the forecast becomes very uncertain as there are vast
run-to-run differences. All guidance does point to an anomalously
deep upper level trough over a large portion of the CONUS, along
with a very cold arctic airmass at the surface. A low pressure system
could develop off the southeastern coast early to mid next week,
bringing precipitation to the forecast area. The combination of the
arctic airmass and the possible precipitation yields the potential
for winter weather. At this juncture, model guidance does suggest a
threat of winter weather across the forecast area. However, an above
normal amount of uncertainty exists regarding very important
forecast details such as possible precipitation types and amounts,
timing, and specific impacted areas.

If you want some fancy graphics to go with that “we don’t know yet,” here is what the latest GFS run (15/06z) shows for snow depths for the next ten days:

But here is what it looked like in the previous run::

This point can’t be emphasized enough: in the southeast, precipitation type forecasts in winter are pretty much worthless more than 2-3 days out. In fact, I don’t get interested until it’s within range of the high resolution models (~ 60 hours). All the angst/excitement is pretty much either clickbait or lack of understanding of the dynamics.