Arctic blast coming?

The usual suspects in the growing and apparently profitable (if you don’t mind fear mongering) weather doomer community are now hyping a potential winter storm forecast by the big global models to send the southeast into a Frozen Disneyesque Dystopia. Is there anything to worry about or should you just Let It Go?

First of all, it’s winter. So people who are acting like this is the First Time In Forever that the south has had a winter storm need to calm down. That said, it is shaping up to be a pretty strong cold snap, the kind we only get once in 10 years or so, but 10 days out the model runs are considered “outlooks” rather than “forecasts.” Here’s what it looks like at the moment so you aren’t going Into The Unknown.

The US Climate Prediction Center (CPC) handles the long range outlooks (over 7 days). Like other NOAA/NWS centers, they issue a “key messages” product when events warrant. Here is their latest as of yesterday, go to their web site for updates.

So what does this mean? It’s really too early to talk about specifics, so if You Want To Build A Snowman we don’t know if you will have enough to do that yet. For what it’s worth, and it’s not much, here is the snow depth outlook from the GFS model run this morning (Tue 31 Dec) for 2am, January 10th …

The snow band across the south has shifted from run to run, so it’s not clear if the GA/SC coast will see anything yet. One thing the models are showing is a band of freezing rain and ice along the leading edge of the storm. Since Reindeer are better than people when it comes to driving, in the south for sure stay off the roads unless you have experience in driving in snow and especially ice if this develops. The snow/ice forecast is notoriously difficult – we won’t really have a good handle on that until 24 hours out.

What about water pipes – should you drip them? That is a key worry of those whose are “Of The Southern Isles.” There are two factors – how cold, and how long. My general rule is if it’s below 30 for more than six hours, drip, and the outlooks are certainly showing that all the way down to North Florida. Southern Living magazine has some tips (link). A key thing to keep in mind is that many houses have their hot water heaters in the attic, and those spaces can go below freezing. So you probably need to drip you inside hot water lines inside (so the water keeps moving to the tank on the cold water feed).

Bottom line: like hurricane season, it’s always a good idea to be ready for winter with some basic precautions (take a look at the FEMA checklists) so when an actual forecast says it’s time to worry you can Do The Next Right Thing.