Another Caribbean Storm?

NHC now has “magic words,” and the blob in the Western Caribbean is now red:

The overnight Tropical Weather Outlook now has the phrase “Interests across the western Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress of this system.” Both major long range models, the US Global Forecast System (GFS) and the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting Integrated Forecast System (ECMWF) show something developing. The question that everyone asks is of course where is it going to go once it forms. The short, official answer is “the forecasts only go out seven days so if a system spins up it will likely be somewhere in that red blob.”

But despite the uncertainty, folks want to know where it will go next. While the models are improving all the time, the 7-10 day forecasts don’t have a great track record (see what I did there 😛 ). And people in areas already hit by storms this year are understandably nervous, so let’s try to read the entrails and peer into the future a bit. On Day seven, here is what the 00z GFS and ECMF models look like using the neat slidee thingee to compare …

And on day 10, they look like this:

In addition to comparing different models, another important comparison is run-to-run consistency. These models are run every six hours. There are two reasons for that: first, it takes about six hours to do a full run, even using supercomputers. The second is that every six hours we create a “snapshot” of the state of the atmosphere, integrating all of the available satellite and surface observations. That data is what is used to start each simulations.

Both the current GFS run and the run from six hours ago showed a hurricane hitting Tampa next week. The run form 12 hours ago showed a weaker system, but slower moving (landfall on Thursday) and a bit further south. So what does it all mean? Not much. If anywhere in a hurricane prone area you should have a plan, and if had to use your stocks (or raided them watching football or election returns) restock your Cheetos and tuna supplies. Otherwise, wait and see because unless you are in the Western Caribbean, there is no actionable guidance so check back in later in the week …

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The West Pacific is still very active, and as noted yesterday the Philippines is in the track of two more systems …

Tropical Storm Man-Yi is expected to pass near Guam and generate tropical storm conditions there before intensifying and passing hear or over the Philippines …

There are no reports of deaths from Toraji, but it has exacerbated the flooding and damage from the previous storms, and there seems no let-up in sight, although the current model runs keep the worst winds and heaviest rain to the north of the Philippines …

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