Rafael is continuing to slowly organize, and is now near Jamaica as a tropical storm. Hurricane warnings are up for the Cayman Islands and Cuba, and tropical storm watches for the Keys will become warnings later today :
For the official word: Key Messages regarding Tropical Storm Rafael (en Español: Mensajes Claves). NHC still expects the storm to intensify in to a hurricane by tomorrow morning. Rafael is in a favorable environment, it could spin up into at least a Category Two storm (and some guidance is higher). However, once it crosses Cuba and enters the Gulf, things are hostile. While the water is still warm enough to support a hurricane, the air is dry and there is a lot of wind shear as we are entering a fall pattern, so it’s likely Rafael will begin to decay. Here is the current impact swath based on the 4am advisory, using my TAOS(tm) model to generate “plain english” impacts:
Another factor is that the storm might encounter another system that will turn it away from the northern Gulf coast. Here are the major track forecast models: you can very clearly see the blue tracks (the UK and European models) take a sharp turn, whereas the other models show a gap in that system that allows Rafael to turn north …
So the track is pretty sure up through Friday, but what happens this weekend and which way it turns is uncertain. The NHC track sort of splits the difference, but chance are it will either go right into Louisiana, or left towards south Texas. Either way, it should be below hurricane strength and weakening by that point.
Elsewhere, watching Typhoon Yinxing (WP24), currently headed towards the northern Philippines. Current track shows it skirting the north coast of Luzon, but the rain and flash flooding potential will be unwelcome even if the higher winds stay offshore.
