Invest AL97 is organized enough, and close enough to land, that NHC has started advisories on it as Potential Tropical Cyclone (PTC) 18. Key Messages regarding Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen (en Español: Mensajes Claves). As a reminder, NHC created the PTC category for a system that isn’t a tropical cyclone, but is close enough to land that it might make landfall as a tropical cyclone, so in order to start advisories and get the watch/warning process started. Here’s the first forecast track, watches, and satellite image:
PTC18 should become a tropical storm in the next 12-18 hours, as it passes close to Jamaica. It may be a hurricane on reaching Cuba. Here’s my TAOS(tm) TC impact swath, based on the NHC forecast:
On this track it should just brush the Florida Keys. Also noted in the NHC discussion is this caution: Interests in the Florida Keys should closely monitor this system as tropical storm watches could be required for portions of the Florida Keys tonight or early Monday. Longer term the system looks to impact the northern Gulf of Mexico coast, most likely being a heavy rain event. There is a lot of uncertainty in the evolution of the storm once it gets past Cuba – some models are spinning up a serious hurricane, but NHC is skeptical of those scenarios as am I. Still, been a weird season so far so worth watching.
The Frogmore metroplex (Savannah/Hilton Head/Beaufort, but definitely not Statesboro or Charleston who are unworthy) is not at risk at the moment, or likely in the future, but might be on the edge of the rain fields after landfall. Too early to tell.
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As a resident of bucolic Statesboro, I have to say . . . fair enough.
One of the things I love about (most) Statesboroians is they accept their status …