TLDR: Atlantic is quiet – but will it stay that way? Kristy is a Category 4 hurricane, headed out to sea. Trami remains a tropical storm just exiting the Philippines. Dana will make landfall in India tomorrow as a Saffir Simpson Category 1 hurricane. More words below …
Although the Atlantic remains quiet (nothing on the seven day NHC outlook), the Pacific remains active. Hurricane Kristy has spun up in to an impressive Category 4 storm off the west coast of Mexico. Fortunately it is headed out to sea, and should decay before it gets close to Hawai’i.
In the West Pacific and Indian Ocean we also have storms, these are not so benign. Tropical Storm Trami (called Kristine by the Philippines Weather Service) is exiting the Philippines, although “only” a tropical storm it has caused significant death and destruction from flooding and mudslides. I’ve seen reports of 26 dead so far, and that toll is likely to go higher.
Next up will be a side-swipe of Hainan Island (China), and possibly a loop offshore of Vietnam early next week. This is a large, diffuse, wet system so while the winds an storm surge are not much of a threat, there is a danger of flooding in both areas.
In the Indian Ocean, Cyclone Dana is on target to make landfall as a Saffir-Simpson category one storm in the state of Odisha, India. As with any landfall along the populous Bay of Bengal, there are a lot of people in the high risk zone, over 20 million. Economic impacts are likely to be in the $1 to $2 Billion range.
Longer range, while the Atlantic is quiet for now, the global models are showing the potential for something to form in the Caribbean in about 10 days, with another threat to Florida and the southeast. This has some of the usual suspect excited, but I again remind everyone there is a good reason the NHC forecast outlooks only go out seven days. Beyond that reliability decreases rapidly, and at 10 days nothing bad happens at least as often as it does if not more so. Don’t worry until you need to worry.
Thank you!