The National Hurricane Center has started advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine as of 11am today (23 Sept 2024). Key Messages regarding Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine (en Español: Mensajes Claves). They really didn’t have much choice, as it is within 48 hours of land and watches/warnings need to go up now for Mexico and Cuba to give them time to prepare.
The forecast track and discussion hasn’t really changed much since this morning’s blog post other than now we have an official forecast and, of course, watches/warnings for Cuba and Yucatan:
Oh the other hand, the situation for Mexico is much worse with respect to John. Tropical Storm John (Key Messages regarding Tropical Storm John (en Español: Mensajes Claves) ) is rapidly organizing and strengthening, and contrary to the forecast just six hours ago is expected to be a stronger Category two hurricane at landfall:
It doesn’t look like these two system will interact a lot, John is small and should dissipate well away from PTC9. Here are the 925mb streamlines (wind paths at about 2500 feet) from the GFS model, forecast for Wednesday:
While PTC9 (which by then will probably be Helene) is the obvious circulation in the middle of the map, John is the disturbance near the coast of Mexico.
Next post will probably be in the morning (link to rant about why I don’t post more often). Remember, watch for trends, don’t chase models and avoid the “windshield wiper” effect …
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Looking worse for us on Savannah
No, it’s not. Same as this morning and last night for that matter, just some gusty wind/rain.
Thank you for keeping this going.
Rant and snark all you want🤣