TL;DR: Francine is still a tropical storm, but is expected to become a hurricane today and make landfall tomorrow (Wednesday) on the central Louisiana coast as a Category 1, possibly Category 2 storm. The disturbances in the central Atlantic are as of yet nothing to worry about (and probably won’t ever be).
As always your best single summary for what a storm is up to are NHC’s Key Messages regarding Tropical Storm Francine (en Español: Mensajes Claves). This morning’s forecast hasn’t changed much, here are the watches and warnings on the current Infrared satellite view:
The center of circulation of Francine is very close to the Mexican coast. It’s pulling in some dry air, so while conditions are otherwise favorable for strengthening, it hasn’t improved any since yesterday. Here is the GOES 6.9um “Water Vapor” band, which shows the moisture levels in the middle of the atmosphere. Deeper blue is wet, browns to reds are increasingly dry …
Notice how the deepest moisture is to the northeast of the center of circulation. You can also see the very sharp gradient in air masses to the north of the storm, along the northern Gulf coast. This will be important at landfall as noted below.
Here is the forecast impact using my TAOS(tm) TC model of NHC’s forecast:
On this track and intensity the economic impacts will be in the $2 to $3 Billion range. There are a lot of offshore oil and gas assets, however, while they will be shut in for a few days, as discussed yesterday they should be robust enough to handle a storm like Francine. Also of major concern economically are the refineries located in this region …
there are 15 facilities listed in our database as petroleum refineries of some kind. Of these, the one of greatest concern is the large Exxon/Mobil Baton Rouge facility, which processes over 500 thousand barrels per day. On the current forecast it would see just under 4% damage and be shut in for about a week. As always, all that with the usual caveat of “if nothing breaks that shouldn’t.”
HOWEVER, the hurricane center forecast is on the high side of intensity estimates. This is probably a “forecast of least regret” kind of situation. There is a lot of sensitive stuff in the way, and a vulnerable population. You don’t want them caught off guard, so NHC is rightly estimating a Category two storm at landfall. While conditions will be favorable for a while as the center of Francine moves offshore from Mexico and heads to Louisiana, both wind shear and dry air are waiting right on the Louisiana shoreline as can be seen in the above water vapor image. So it’s likely that Francine will begin to rapidly degenerate again. The question is where and how fast. Chances are the storm will be a minimal category one at landfall. That said, you absolutely don’t want to get caught off guard, so follow your local emergency manager’s guidance and plan for NHC’s forecast of Category two event.
If you like this kind of commentary you can subscribe to the emails (and/or donate to keep it going) at this link. You can also follow us on X/Twitter (@EnkiResearch) or even Facebook if that’s your preferred social media miasma.
1 Comment