The West Pacific, which has been quiet for weeks, has spawned two tropical cyclones in the last 24 hours. Here are the forecast impact swaths over the next five days …
The first, Tropical Depression WP04, will probably become a tropical storm today and remain that way until it makes landfall Monday on Hainan Island. This should be mostly a rain event.
The second, Tropical Depression WP05, warrants a closer look. It is forcast to become a Typhoon (hurricane) in 72 hours, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is forecasting it to become a borderline major Typhoon (strong Cat 2, almost Cat 3) by day four as is passes through the Miyako Islands, the most southern part of the island chain that includes Okinawa. The storm is forecast to remain far enough south of Okinawa for impacts there to be minimal, but keep an eye on it as small track shifts could change that. While the Miyako Islands are small, there are still nearly 120,000 people in the path of the storm.
On this track the storm should remain north of Taiwan with minimal impacts there as well – but as with Okinawa, worth keeping an eye on it. The track guidance is reasonably clustered for the next few days, but a major caveat is the storm is still organizing, and significant track shifts are common as the models get a “lock” on the strengthening circulation and surrounding patterns.
After that the storm may impact the major port complexes in and around Shanghai, and disrupt shipping in around the East China Sea and Taiwan Straits, so those in the logistics business and interests in China will need to watch this carefully next week.
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