Outlook for Jan 11/12 storm

TLDR: For GA/SC coast, not nearly as bad as the Tuesday storm, just a rainy/gusty day. Inland some severe thunderstorms are possible, but these aren’t likely to reach the coast. Still, keep your weather radio handy just in case. Major snowstorm in the Midwest. Here’s the details …

As the National Hurricane Center”Key Messages” product is the place to go for no-nonsense hurricane info, the NOAA Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is the place to go for big storm systems like winter storms. They too have a “Key Messages” product, and here is the 5am 11 January product for the storm impacting the country today:

Another great resource is your local national weather service office. Go to the main National Weather Service page (link). It will display current warnings and have a headline with the “big picture.” Here is what it looks like this morning:

You can click on your location on the map or enter your zip code in a box in the upper left to get a detailed forecast. It’s free (you already paid for it in your taxes) and here’s the thing: with a couple of rare exceptions (and in my view these exceptions aren’t especially valuable), the forecasts you get from your local TV or other media are ultimately based on the data from NWS and other national weather agencies (like the European Centre or UKMET, both of which are used by NWS as well). The only difference is the TV/Media people have a vested interest in keeping you “enraged and engaged” and tend to both play up weather to make a “story” to keep you clicking/watching, whereas the NWS doesn’t: they are just trying to do their job of public safety and get paid either way. I am especially skeptical of weather apps from media sources: their main goal is to access your social media and other information, as well as additional advertising revenues. Why let them profit from your data when you can just bookmark the NWS site and get the same info, without the drama?

So how bad will Friday be? There are two issues: the wind, and severe thunderstorm and tornado potential. For wind, while winds 1000 or more feet above the surface are strong, for this storm the winds are not expected to “mix down” and reach the surface like they did Tuesday. Compared to that event, winds should be 10-15mph lower, so sustained winds here in Savannah are likely to “only” be in the mid 20’s, with gusts into the 30’s. So breezy but not into the range where it becomes hazardous unless something breaks that shouldn’t.

Now what about the convective stuff. Here is what the Storm Prediction Center (SPC, who are responsible for tornado/thunderstorm part of the forecasts) map shows for Friday:

As you can see, the “enhanced” risk area is inland. right along the coast the risk is less. So again, at least on the coast, the risk from this storm is lower. Doesn’t look like as much rain, with two rain episodes, a slower rain blob associated with a warm front in the morning, and a sharp short rain event in the evening as the cold front pushes it all offshore. 

So: for today, the area of risk for severe weather is in Texas, moving across Arkansas/Louisiana/Mississippi, and tomorrow in to central Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina, so those areas should be especially vigilant and alert for severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings. On the coast you should still keep your weather radios on in case a severe thunderstorm or tornado spins up. In the middle (like Jesup, Hinesville, Guyton, Springfield, Yemassee, etc) more of a chance but less than a bit further inland like Baxley, Statesboro, Hampton, Santee, and points inland from there where the risk is the highest.

In the Midwest there will be a snowstorm , but duh, it’s winter and there is nothing between you and the north pole but tundra. Move some place warmer with trees if you don’t like it 😛 !

Yeah, I harp on weather radios, because the personal data privacy aspects aside, text/phone or app alerts from commercial sources can be many minutes behind official weather radio alerts. I’ve had readers report delays of 3-5 minutes in this latest event between when their radio alert went off and the phone beep, in a few cases 10 minutes to never, and in a tornado that’s a very long time. And sirens aren’t designed to be heard inside (and the wind means you can be near one and not hear it if the wind is blowing the sound away from you). Get a weather radio – they are cheap (under $50, a really good one, the Midland 120, is available for around $35 in many places).

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