Clouds in the Atlantic!

Some of them may have wind and rain under them!

Philippe is (barely) a tropical storm, AL91 remains just below tropical depression strength/organization as of 11am AL91 is upgraded to AL18, Tropical Storm Rina. The two are getting close enough where they are starting to interact. The modeling is, to say the least, a jumble at this point:

click to, oh, why bother.

We can try to make some sense by limiting it to just the primary global models:

ok, this makes at least some sense.

But either way these two clusters of clouds with some rain and gale force winds are not likely to be a big threat to anybody. Although NHC says people in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should “monitor”, the bottom line is that if the storm goes that way conditions are unfavorable and the storm will very likely break up before it gets there. Likewise, AL91 might technically become a depression or storm, but even though Rina has formed out of AL91, it is likely to remain a pelagic storm – assuming it too doesn’t break up.

As of the 11am, update, NHC is leaning more towards the slower track with a northerly turn for Philippe, letting the Caribbean off the hook. Rina should stay east of Philippe – this will become clearer in the next couple days, but either way neither are a threat to land.

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