Lee forecast still holding up; Morocco Earthquake

The track forecast for Hurricane Lee has been remarkably consistent for a storm that is doing such a sharp turn. As expected it slowed down a lot yesterday as it changes from one steering regime to another, and the northward turn seems to be materializing. Here is a link to NHC’s latest Key Messages regarding Hurricane Lee (en Español: Mensajes Claves), and the latest TAOS/TC impact swath based on their forecast:

click any image to embiggen.

As for impacts, in the next five days waves from Lee will be spreading across the Atlantic, an the swell will likely causing hazardous rip currents. Bermuda is currently forecast to be on the fringes of Lee by this Thursday/Friday, with tropical storm force winds if the NHC track and intensity holds.

After that, the forecast still heads towards Nova Scotia, perhaps brushing New England with gusty winds and rain this weekend and potentially a landfall Sunday in the Canadian Atlantic Provinces. Too early to really speak of impacts, but probably nor’easter like conditions. Although in general you shouldn’t get too excited about anything beyond the official NHC forecast, for reference here is the primary track model spread:

amazingly tight grouping for this scenario.

In the far eastern Atlantic, Tropical Storm Margot may become a hurricane for a day or two before continuing north away from land. Her backup singers (Invest AL97, which isn’t expected to develop, and an as yet un-numbered disturbance, which might) also seems destined to tour the pelagic realms. Elsewhere not a lot going on of interest.

Didn’t have a chance to discuss the earthquake in Morocco this weekend, which had major damage to Marrakesh. My TAOS/EQ model showed at least 50,000 people in structures at risk of collapse, generally at least 20% of shows will have injuries of some kind and 5% fatal, sadly, those numbers seem to be realistic. The latest reports are at least 2100 killed. Latest CNN livestream is at this link.

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