Atlantic Update 22 August 203

Yesterday as expected NHC started advisories on the disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico, and managed to find a small area of tropical storm force winds this morning so we now have Tropical Storm Harold (AL092023). The main threat is some flash flooding, winds are barely tropical storm force, and damage is expected to be light unless something breaks that shouldn’t. Here are links to NHC’s Key Messages regarding Tropical Storm Harold (en Español: Mensajes Claves), the the TAOS/TC impact swath looks like this:

click any image to embiggen.

Radar shows rain is already ashore this morning. Landfall will be in a few hours, and by Thursday it should be off the headlines.

Tropical Storm Franklin (AL072023) has stalled in the middle of the Caribbean. It is expected that Franklin will start moving north tomorrow and make landfall on the Dominican Republic (island of Hispaniola, shared with Haiti). Again, the main problem will be heavy rain and in the mountainous areas that means flash flooding. Puerto Rico also seems to be getting rain bands already, as seen or the radar this morning:

Conditions are not conducive for Franklin to be more than a middle, at worst strong, tropical storm before hitting the Greater Antilles. Here’s a link to what NHC has to say … Key Messages regarding Tropical Storm Franklin (en Español: Mensajes Claves), and my TAOS/TC impact swath:

Afterwards it is likely to head for open water, although in five days it might make another turn towards the northeast and make Bermuda worry. The track models are having a hard time “locking on” the diffuse center of Franklin, but most show it doing various zig-zags after crossing Hispaniola. It should stay well offshore from the US, but might, if it does become a hurricane, generate some waves which would be good for surfers but bad for rip currents. Here is are the current objective track models, showing what might happen over the next 10 days (the official forecast only goes to day 5, in this case Sunday).

The red line is the official forecast and what you should concentrate on. The other tracks are in part what NHC is using to base their forecast on, but they use other data and have lots of experience so second guessing them isn’t so smart.

The rest of the rabble in the Atlantic are no threat to land. Gert is trying to dissipate, the remnants of Emily have a small (20%) chance of regenerating, and a wave off of Africa (AL92) will be following Emily in the the realm of fish and fish related interests.

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