Doomwatch for Sat/Sun, 21/22 Feb 2026

Doesn’t look like much yet, but big storm system is brewing in the south today, and will be evolving into a powerful nor’easter tomorrow.

Satellite image showing cloud cover over the southeastern United States, including Florida and nearby states, with visible water bodies and land features.
Visual band from GOES East of Southeast this morning, that bright blob over GA will be spinning up later today.

Three things to watch are the potential for severe thunderstorms in the south (marginal, but that won’t stop the usual suspects from bloviating), below freezing temps in areas where the spring blooming has started, and a potentially major disruptive winter storm for the northeast (which is a real thing). Here’s the notes …

For the southeast, the NOAA Storm Prediction Center has a swath including the Frogmore Metroplex (Coastal GA and the South Carolina Lowcountry) tagged with a marginal risk of severe weather:

Map showing the SPC Day 1 categorical outlook for the southeastern United States with a highlighted area indicating a 'Marginal Risk' (MRGL) for severe weather.

So not a lot of risk. You should still have a weather radio handy for all the reasons I rant incessantly about. We could definitely use some rain, we look to get about an inch out of it. If it looks like something more than a typical isolated thunderstorm is spinning up later this afternoon will post another note.

For Frogmore and environs the biggest threat from this system is below freezing temperatures starting possibly Sunday night, but definitely Monday night. Since we had temps in the 80’s (including records yesterday at both Charleston and Savannah), lots of plants have started leafing out and blooming, so be sure to protect what you can. Temps inland like the Jundland Statesboro wastes and Hinesville are likely to be mid 20’s, closer to the coast like Charleston, Frogmore itself, Savannah probably just below freezing but may go into the upper 20’s briefly.

Soil temperatures are fairly warm, 67 in midtown Savannah, so again the big risk is to exposed plants. Will also be windy, with gusts into the 30 mph range Sunday, and even in the 20’s on Monday.

The big problem from this system is the northeast. Here is what NOAA’s WPC has to say about it:

Infographic detailing a major winter storm affecting the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S. with key messages about heavy snow, strong winds, and blizzard conditions.

If you’re planning on flying Sunday or Monday, be aware that this will make hash of traffic at some major airports on Sunday, like JFK, Newark, and Laguardia. That means any transiting flights will be disrupted, so the whole system will be impacted (remember the airplane and crew taking you had to come from somewhere, so if it got delayed the impacts rapidly cascade). Airline scheduling is a dark art, and they sometimes don’t know what is going on until after it happens, so contact your airline to ask what is going on. They might or might not know …


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