The much anticipated winter storm has started, with “wintery precipitation” reaching into the deep south this morning …
For coastal GA and the SC Lowcountry, there doesn’t seem to be any risk of dangerous conditions or a true ice storm. Here’s the latest “most likely” ice forecast from the WSFO in Charleston:
The biggest problem will be if any of that freezing rain or drizzle sets up as black ice in the morning on bridges or roads. It’s not likely, but if you have to go out early in the morning be careful, especially inside that gray dashed area (if you’re in the colored areas plan on staying in). Next up is a wave of deep cold :
Inland is a different story. Here is what the WSFO Peachtree City (responsible for Atlanta and North Georgia) says:
The office in Columbia has done a nice graphic I wish the other offices would adopt, it shows the timing of various hazards:
Suppose, for whatever reasons, your interests lie outside the sacred precincts of Frogmore or the surrounding bucolic countryside? It looks to be a mess. Most of the country is under watches and warnings for this thing:
By tomorrow morning at 7am there is likely to be a broad swath of freezing rain (red/purple areas) and snow (blue) falling across the country:
Another danger in the northern Virginia and Washington DC-Philadelphia-New York City corridor is that by Sunday evening, the snow maybe changing over to freezing rain:
That will be a nightmare, with a layer of ice on top of snow. With super cold air moving in Monday, it won’t melt for four or five days, paralyzing everything.
Why do we worry so much about ice? It’s heavy, and it sticks to stuff. Anything over a quarter inch starts to be worrisome, but the real trouble with power lines and trees is when the ice accumulations over half an inch. At that point you can anticipate lots of downed power lines, trees, and other infrastructure starting to fail. NWS has a page with some pithy “social media” ready safety tips you can browse and steal.
Another safety tip: if you are in an area that gets ice from this thing, be especially careful when it starts to warm up because at some point when the temperature goes up, the ice comes down. Sometimes thousands of pounds at once will break free from buildings and other structures, and have killed people and other animals.
I’m often asked about this or that flight. Other than the fact air travel across the country is going to be a nightmare, I can’t tell you what is going to happen to any specific flight or route, and often neither can your airline! Airline scheduling is a dark art, juggling not only weather but aircraft, crews, and financial concerns. In this kind of situation with airports having to throttle or stop traffic, effects cascade through the system. The airplane taking you came from somewhere else, as did the crew. Crews can only work a certain number of hours a day – that times out, even if the airplane is ready and both airports open, you may not be able to go. So please be patient with all this. For what it’s worth, here is the terminal forecast for overnight for the Atlanta Center area, it’s ugly – for example, by 7pm ice is expected to have a major impact at Charlotte, and low ceilings may be slowing down traffic at Hartsfield-Jackson:
Bottom line: big winter storm, going to be a mess for a few days. Don’t plan on travel by air or road and if you have to go out, be careful!
One last thing: starting to see social-media fear-mongering over another storm next weekend. Seriously? Again, anything over 5 days isn’t a forecast, it’s an outlook, and for a major winter storm not even that really. If you’ve watched this one develop, you’ll note I didn’t really start to focus on it until Wednesday – five days before Saturday – since before that time frame the models just aren’t reliable for the two key questions: where, and how bad. Here’s a nice summary from WPC – the folks who manage forecasts:
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I have frequently found myself wondering about above ground power lines. I know the cost would be massive to move them all below ground. But considering the expense of ongoing issues with wildfires on the west coast caused by old lines, summer/fall thunderstorms and hurricanes causing widespread outages, and winter ice storms, is there not some path to a public/private partnership to start that process. A large up front cost but offset by far less ongoing costs?
As always thanks for your thoughtful discussion. I greatly appreciate your calm approach in providing an update.