TL;DR: NHC is watching Invest area AL95, a tropical wave that is starting to consolidate as it crosses the Atlantic. It may be a problem for the Leeward Islands (Antigua and Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Martin, etc) late in the week, but at this point doesn’t look threatening for Frogmore and its buccolic neighbors (the Southeastern US coast).
Denizens of the Atlantic who check the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook after 8am are greeted with this terrifying visage:
The red blob of doom has been tagged as Invest area AL95, a temporary ID that starts serious model tracking, which will be available later today. Here’s what it looks like as the sun rises this morning, in both visual and infrared bands …
The GFS model is pretty enthusiastic about the system, taking it across the Leeward Islands towarisds the end of the week. The European AIFS and determistic IFS runs are definitely “meh” about the system. Here’s the side-by-side for Thursday/Friday, GFS on the left, AIFS on the right:
In either case, doesn’t seem a threat to the mainland US at this point, as the setup over the Atlantic by next weekend would turn any developing storm south of Bermuda then back towards Europe. NHC has no “magic words” in their outlook, but those in the northeastern Caribbean would do well to check back in the morning.
The East Pacific also has two storms, only Priscilla is of interest. It’s on the verge of becoming a hurricane, and is close enough to the coast for NHC to have raised tropical storm watches …
If you are in central Mexico or Baja, keep an eye on it and be prepared to take precautions since even a brush by can cause flash flooding and mudslides in mountainous terrain. Modeling shows potential impacts just brushing the shoreline, but any wobbles could bring them inland …
Two storms in the West Pacific as well, Matmo is making landfall on Hainan Island, and Halong might brush Japan in a couple of days. Matmo looks to be causing upwards of $4 Billion in damage and disruption to southern China, hitting during the eight day Autumn Holiday, so economic impacts are a bit disproportionate. Here’s the TAOS(tm) impact swaths for both West Pacific storms.
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