Atlantic Doomwatch 18 Sept 2024

The usual suspects have been chattering a lot the last few days over recent long range model runs (beyond 10 days) showing the potential for development in the western Caribbean and a massive storm hitting Florida in about two weeks. Do you need to worry yet? Let’s consult an expert …

So what’s the sitch? Conditions for storm formation have periodically been favorable in the western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico over the last few weeks – obviously we got Francine last week. A similar situation could be developing in seven to 10 days, and both the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting’s IFS model (ECM) and the US Global Forecasting System (GFS) are showing a tropical wave encountering these favorable conditions and spinning up. Here’s the ECM Tropical Cyclone Probability map for Wednesday evening at 7pm on the 25th (7 days from now):

Beware the color codes, it is showing between a 10 and 20 percent probability of a storm existing in the red blob. The seven day Tropical Weather Outlook from NHC basically mirrors that (and shows the remains of Gordon in the east Atlantic potentially briefly spinning back up):

Seven days is about the reasonable limit for these models – beyond that, it’s not a forecast, it’s at best an outlook or probabilistic assessment. Here is the 12 day probability forecast from ECMWF:

The big 20% blob over the eastern Gulf and Florida are all related to the potential storm spinning up in the western Caribbean and tracking across Florida. The GFS from cycle to cycle changes the location and intensity, but it’s been pretty consistent. Here’s the cool slider thingee comparing the 00z run this morning with the 12z run from yesterday for Thursday evening September 27th (nine days from now)…

So what does this mean? It means there is potential for a storm to form in the Gulf. But it’s hurricane season, so that shouldn’t be a surprise, and nothing to get excited about. There are a LOT of uncertainties in the models at this long out, so while it’s interesting, it’s not at all actionable or worth worrying about if you have a hurricane plan, and in that sense the threat condition is the same as on June 1st every year: have a plan and know what you are going to do if a storm comes your way. There will be lots of warning if something does spin up, we’ll have a better picture this weekend (21st or 22nd). There’s plenty of other stuff to worry about in the meanwhile, like the insanity in the Middle East, the escalation and increasing likelihood of a major war in Europe (which will almost certainly result in strikes on the US, possibly nuclear), and the Maryland/Villanova game this weekend.

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