Beryl is now down to being a somewhat disorganized tropical storm. The satellite presentation this morning is far from what it once was … here on IR since the sun isn’t up yet over the western Gulf of Mexico:
Here is a link to the latest official NHC forecast summaries found in their Key Messages regarding Tropical Storm Beryl (en Español: Mensajes Claves). Based on the latest forecast track, and their belief the storm will enter favorable conditions just before landfall and regain hurricane strength:
The tracking models were more dispersed last night but have come in to better focus on the central Texas coast near Port O’Connor and Matagorda Bay this morning. But a wobble south hits Corpus Christi, a wobble north is uncomfortably close to Galveston/Houston, and given the arcing approach to the coast a hurricane watch (soon to be warning) is up for the Texas shoreline from Houston south to the far northern Mexican coast (Matamoros). The intensity forecast is a bit trickier, in that despite how ragged Beryl looks this morning, the fetid waters of the Gulf of Mexico are warm, and conditions are expected to be favorable tomorrow for development. So while it’s at the high end of the guidance, NHC is forecasting a hurricane so people don’t get caught off guard.
Economic impacts depend a lot on just how much Beryl intensifies and the exact landfall location (duh). The Texas coast has large areas of low population, and Beryl could slip through with only a few hundred million in impacts. If the wind core sweeps across Corpus Christi or edges close to the Houston area impacts will easily top $1 Billion USD.
Aside from oil speculators, who love to, well, speculate and drive prices up and down for little real reason, the long and short of it (pun intended) is this shouldn’t have much of a long term impact on oil and gas prices. There are some sites shut in, but damage should be minimal, and no major refineries are at risk at the moment.
Speaking of economic and social impacts, we’re getting a better picture of the damage swath through the Eastern Caribbean. Several of the smaller islands in the Grenadines were nearly swept clean. Grenada Prime Minister Dickon Mitchell described “total destruction” on the islands of Carriacou and Petite Martinique, seeing almost no vegetation left in a helicopter tour. Other areas devastated were Union Island and Mayreau. The south end of St. Lucia was hit hard, as was the north end of Grenada itself. There is likely over a Billion dollars of damage across these small islands, and as I try to remind everyone, given the small populations and insular economies, this translates to out sized impacts.
It looks like Jamaica wasn’t hit as hard as expected, although the eye wall did cross the far south of the Island. Still, the damage is extensive, especially to roofs and agriculture, and power was out to 65% of the island at one point. Several hundred million in damages here is certain.
It appears the important resort areas in Yucatan saw largely superficial damage – power outages, lots of debris to clean up, but it appears not a lot of structural damage.
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This is the type of storm that longtime residents of the Texas Gulf Coast actually appreciate — not too windy, moves along at a relatively fast pace, provides needed rainfall after a dry spell, and cools things down for a few days during the hot summer months. Indeed, most residents in the San Antonio-Kerrville-Canyon Lake area are actually hoping that it takes a more westerly track so that they can receive much needed rainfall to relieve a prolonged drought. You don’t hear that perspective from the mainstream news organizations that are seeking clicks. It’s one of the reasons that I prefer Enki for storm analysis.