Space Nukes, Navalny and the most important issue of the day: Assange

Very busy week in the geopolitical realm. By most reports the Ukrainian armed forces are being absolutely hammered and the Avdeevka sector has collapsed. It has been used as a base to attack Donetsk for the last ten years of the civil war, and it is a major fortress. For it to have fallen is a bad sign for Ukraine. Is this the end game? Maybe – but Russia is trying to minimize their own casualties, and are also nervous about what kind of stupid moves the US/NATO might make, given the ongoing “Steadfast Defender 24” exercise and the major troop movements along the border with Russia and Ukraine. Hopefully the Biden administration won’t do anything escalatory and foolish. I think there is much more to come before the end, but the end for Ukraine is likely coming sooner or later. US aid is only making the carnage worse, and delaying the inevitable. Well past time to negotiate – honestly, this time.

The news out of Ukraine may also help put a couple of other recent events in perspective (and contribute to conspiracy theories). The first is the “leak” about a “disturbing” new Russian satellite capability that involves nuclear weapons. Or nuclear power. Or something, you just need to be scared. The latest public reporting has it as a nuclear weapons based system to disable satellites. As near as I can tell this is nothing new, and is just theater to try to push US House Members in to supporting the insane supplemental budget bill to waste more money on Ukraine, as well as throw some stuff at Israel and Taiwan. In this case I don’t doubt at all that this was a pretty transparent stunt as to try to gin up support for the funding bill.

The reporting on it was horrible as usual – little to no context that the Soviet Union launched its first nuclear powered military spacecraft in 1968(!), that the US and UK both actually tested nuclear weapons in space already (Operation Fishbowl in the early 1960’s), or that both the US and the Soviets (and now Russia) continued to work on both nuclear powered military spacecraft as well as ways of using nuclear weapons in space (despite the UN Outer Space Treaty that prohibits them). So I suspect that another aspect to all this is the utter lack of institutional memory in Congress, the Administration, the media, and I suspect even in the Intelligence community, much less the public. But the leak – yeah, that was all about pushing Ukraine funding.

Yesterday (16 Feb) the news broke about the death of Alexei Navalny, a Russian lawyer/politician who has become somewhat of a darling to western politicians and activists. This was always a bit surprising to me (ok, not really), because he was never really very popular in Russia. He was also pretty problematic as a hero – he was vehemently anti-Muslim (calling for their extermination at one point) and had neo-Nazi and nationalist affiliations. If these are mentioned at all by western media, it will be like his Wikipedia article and say his views “evolved.” He supported the Russian intervention in Georgia in 2008 and even the occupation of Crimea in 2014 – but when he started getting lots of money from various US related cutouts, he “evolved” again and suddenly he decided that Russian interventions in Georgia and Ukraine were bad. In short, he was an artificial construct for the most part, and really not someone the US should have been supporting in the first place – but, as is seen in Ukraine, our government doesn’t seem to mind funding Nazis and other odious types when it’s convenient. If Russia supported fringe figures here in the US with the kinds of money the US does in Russia, there would be infinite outrage. Of course, they don’t have to – our “mainstream” politicians are fringe/crazy enough 😛

Did Putin have Navalny offed? I sort of doubt it, at least not directly. He was in jail already, and as noted above not really much of a threat at this point. To do it now, with Ukraine collapsing and the West arguably on the run economically, it makes little sense. I think you have to be very careful about these things. Paranoia is a thing among world leaders and there are clearly a suspicious number of “accidents” in Putin’s circle of opponents. That said, you have to be careful because about as many “Friends of Bill” met weird ends as have enemies of Putin, giving rise to all sorts of conspiracy stories about the Clintons. Which goes to show how stats can be misused. But it also has to be remembered that many major figures in Russia today came out of the chaos of the 1990’s and early 2000’s, when organized crime connections were essential for survival, much less success. Many of these figures like Navalny, Skripal, Magnitsky, and so forth had ties with – and enemies among – some really bad people.

Did Navalny’s own organization do it for pre-election attention, as many in Русский мир (Russia World) are saying, suggesting the CIA or MI6 did it given the suspicious timing noted above? Navalny apparently met with his lawyer shortly before his death. It is interesting that Yulia Navalaya (his wife) just happened to be giving a speech to the latest Munich Security Conference, and the grieving widow thing was great PR. It had reached the point years ago, certainly by the time of his poisoning, that Navalny would make a better martyr than actual opposition candidate, so hard to totally discount some nefariousness from his own “side”. Something our friend in Kiev might want to keep in mind in the upcoming days. In any event those pushing for more money for Ukraine aren’t waiting for the body to cool before exploiting his death:

But all that said, despite the Epstein-like circumstances, I suspect it’s none of the above. Navalny was already in poor health (being poisoned generally isn’t good for you), and getting moved around in any prison system rarely helps under those circumstances. My guess is the timing is just coincidence, not that will stop folks from exploiting it and therefore triggering the conspiracy theories about his death.

Which brings us to the most important topic of the day: Julian Assange. It’s hard to write this without resorting to invective. The sheer hypocrisy of the US complaining about Gershkovich or Navalny is absurd given what it is doing to Assange. It seems that the only thing Assange did was commit journalism. It is my understanding that nothing Wikileaks has released has been disproved – in fact, the prosecution (persecution, to be accurate) is precisely because it was factual. Going after him is an obvious attempt to intimidate reporters, something it’s hard to imagine the government being much concerned about given their record at this point. His last chance to avoid extradition from Great Britain to certain convection or worse here in the US is next week. There are many ways you can add your voice to those opposing this travesty – please speak up.

Technically speaking, since Wikileaks published classified information, the problem wasn’t really with Wikileaks publishing it (a long standing US tradition – Pentagon papers anybody?). The criminal act was really the people who gave Assange the original classified documents. However, there is just one problem: these documents were in fact proof of illegal activity on the part of the US Government … the fact that government officials can hide behind classification as a shield against prosecution – and turn the tables on whistleblowers and now journalists who try to report on it – is a serious problem in our system.

Speaking as someone who has held clearances and takes them very seriously, revelation of illegal acts should be an absolute defense against any security violation. I have no problem with the person doing so being charged and tried – security is that important – but if the action being uncovered is illegal, that should be able to be raised as a defense and if proven the charges dismissed. However, there should never be a charge brought against a journalist for reporting something given to them, even if classified and even if that classification turns out to be legitimate. I would even extend this to a journalist soliciting someone for classified information. The breach was committed by the person who had access abusing their clearance – with the caveat again being if it was to expose wrongdoing, they should be exonerated. Journalism and the free flow of information is too vital to our democracy and government accountability to do otherwise. The silence of the major media on this subject is incredible.

How is all of this related? All of the above stories – Ukraine, supposed new nuclear threat from Russia, and the death of Navalny – require knowledgeable, nuanced, balanced reporting that is independent of government narratives of the day. That requires an independent press free from intimidation and threats. The epic hypocrisy of the US prosecuting Assange, while in the same breath complaining about Gershkovich in Russia, much less remaining silent over the torture and death of Gonzalo Lira (a US Citizen) in Ukraine, is disgusting. And for the press to simply parrot government narratives without context means they are stenographers, not journalists. This country is supposed to be different. It is supposed to be the “shining city on the hill” with integrity and honor.

Sadly, in these matters, our major institutions of media and government have neither.