NHC starts advisories on TD13

The US National Hurricane Center has started advisories on Tropical Depression 13 (formerly invest area AL95). Here are their Key Messages regarding Tropical Depression Thirteen (link), and here is the forecast impact swath based on the first forecast advisory at 11am …

click to embiggen any graphic.

At this point no watches or warnings, the advisory saying:

The depression is forecast to become a major hurricane by
this weekend and could bring impacts to the Leeward Islands by that time. While it is too soon to determine the location and magnitude of these possible impacts, interests in this area should monitor the progress of the depression and updates to the forecast.

Sound advice – this thing should be Tropical Storm Lee by in the morning, and looks to rapidly intensify into a major hurricane in the next few days. No mention of the US at this point, and won’t be for several days unless things trend south and Puerto Rico and the USVI are at risk. That doesn’t seem likely if the modeling is on track – but as NHC notes, some ensemble members (as well as the Navy’s Global Model) do curl towards the Islands. Here’s the modeling in support of Advisory One if it makes you feel better 😛 …

Just after the end of the forecast period (Sunday/Monday of next week) the modeling indicates that the the storm (by then should be a very powerful hurricane if the guidance is correct) will be starting a northward turn towards the vicinity of Bermuda.

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