Sunday Evening Update; Hilary continues raining, Franklin forms in Caribbean, and now an earthquake in California?

Sorry about the number of posts today, very dynamic situation. Tropical Storm Franklin formed from invest area AL91, over the Caribbean, and is headed towards Hispaniola. Here are NHC’s Key Messages regarding Tropical Storm Franklin (en Español: Mensajes Claves), and this is the current impact estimate using their forecast and my TAOS/TC model:

click any image to embiggen.

Out west, it is clear that nature hates Californians. In addition to Tropical Storm Hilary there was a small (M5.1) earthquake this afternoon. Here is the current forecast wind swath from Hilary, but as noted wind isn’t really the problem:

The problem is of course rain, and it continues to be a grim forecast with flash flooding likely overnight as the storm moves north:

As for the earthquake, it is small, but people felt it:

Not likely to have caused much damage, my systems didn’t bother to run an estimate. Was it related to the Hilary rain? In fact it might be … rain and flooding has been known to trigger shallow faults through a variety of mechanisms.

TLDR: Southwest still at risk of significant impacts from Hilary. Hispaniola and eastern Puerto Rick will likely get some rain and gusty winds from Franklin, but nothing catastrophic. AL91 (invest in Gulf of Mexico) will be monitored, Emily is a fish storm, the other thing off of Africa isn’t an invest yet so not worth talking about, although by mid week if may be of interest to the proverbial fish and fish related interests. No threats to the US East Coast (well, from tropical systems anyway).


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