Severe weather possible Today (Sunday) and Monday

Whenever contrasting air masses collide, you get severe weather, and that is what is happening over the central US today, and will move into the South and Central Atlantic overnight in to tomorrow. As of 7:30 am Sunday the radar doesn’t look bad, with some scattered rain on the GA/SC coast and a band of heavy snow across the northern tier of states:

but as the day goes on this will flare up and the central states along the Mississippi Valley may be in for some severe thunderstorms and tornadoes as the cold air mass sweeps south and hits warm moist air from the Gulf of Whatever. Today’s outlook from the Storm Prediction Center shows the risk:

As a reminder, here is what these color codes and categories mean. Again, beware of local TV stations that take these maps and recolor them or consolidate the categories making them more dramatic!

Tomorrow the system moves east, and there is a higher potential for some severe weather in the central Atlantic states. Here’s the outlook:

As you can see, this impinges the sacred precincts of the Frogmore Metroplex (coastal Georgia and the Lowcountry of South Carolina). The regional Weather Service Forecast Office (WSFO), located in Charleston SC, briefing this morning has a couple of nice graphics outlining the risk today and tomorrow. Here’s the key messages for today (Sunday):

And for tomorrow (Monday the 16th):

So what’s the TL;DR? Probably just rain this morning (we’ve had 0.1″ in midtown Savannah already), then a break during mid-day with maybe some scattered showers, then this evening picking up and by tomorrow heavier rain/showers with embedded thunderstorms and a frontal passage in the afternoon that has a risk of thunderstorms and some risk of hail, wind gusts, and even a tornado possible. So basically what you should do is have a weather radio for alerts. Second best thing is to have a regular commercial radio (AM/FM) available. Please be aware that any internet or mobile phone based source simply isn’t reliably in these kinds of situations. It’s far better than nothing of course, but they often have delays and dropouts that, in a tornado, can make the difference between getting a warning in time or not. And sirens have similar issues, and in addition are not meant to warn people indoors. They also suffer from attenuation in rain and gusty winds, so just because you heard it loud an clear on test day doesn’t mean you will hear it on a stormy day.

This should be cleared out by Monday evening, so the Bacchanalia in Savannah Tuesday will be a clear cold day. During the parade will be clear and in the 40s and with the breeze wind chills maybe even in the 30s, so dress warmly.

Actual air temps Tuesday and Wednesday morning may be the upper 30’s on the coast, so chance of frost/freeze, but inland has a warning up and may see below freezing well inland.

Finally, this is not a panic, ZOMG event. Yes, it’s a spring time thunderstorm event, which carries some risk, but is the kind we get several times a year. You can go about your business for the most part with common sense (if your name isn’t Franklin don’t fly any kites), just be aware for the potential for severe weather, be aware outside activities are likely to be messed up, and know what you will do if there is a tornado warning (inside room without windows in a sturdy building).

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