Lee now a hurricane

NHC upgraded Lee to a hurricane even though the evidence was a bit sketchy (link to discussion). Here are their Key Messages regarding Hurricane Lee (en Español: Mensajes Claves). Other than that (which was expected), nothing much changed – slight shift north, slower towards day 4-5; here’s the updated impact swath using my TAOS/TC model:

Click to embiggen.

NHC added a caution for swell and rip currents in the Islands, which makes sense. Expect those swell and rip current warnings to expand to the US by the weekend and next week as the storm intensifies and waves propagate.

Forecast models still show Lee staying north of the Caribbean, and a sharp northward turn Monday which would keep it away from the Bahamas and US Mainland (Bermuda might be a problem, but way too early to say). So … no real change since morning other than nomenclature.

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